Brazil in 2026: the market opportunity for Chinese companies
This page consolidates 2024–2026 trade, investment, sector moves, policy changes and execution pain points for Chinese companies in Brazil, every number with its original source. The conclusion: Brazil is now the number-one destination of Chinese outbound investment, automotive, energy and machinery are shifting from exporting to localising, and a complex compliance environment makes study-first the right order.
BYD, GWM, Chery and Geely already build or co-produce in Brazil; from July 2026 the EV import tariff rises to 35% and CKD quotas expire at year end, opening a localisation window for parts suppliers. Chinese brands already hold more than 10% of car sales.
Solar and storage
A 25% import tariff on modules above quota pushes local assembly and battery storage (BESS) projects; CHINT is building its first South American plant in Itumbiara (Goiás) and BYD announced up to R$500 m for stationary batteries.
Agricultural and construction machinery
XCMG has produced in Minas Gerais since 2014 and targets 55% local content in 2026; Sany starts electric trucks in São Paulo state in 2026; Zoomlion entered with farm machinery in 2025. Show Rural in Cascavel draws about 400,000 visitors a year.
Mining and oil
Chinese mining investment reached US$1.76 bn in 2025, the highest since 2011, concentrated in nickel and copper M&A; CNOOC and Sinopec won the Ametista block in October 2025 and Chinese state companies rose from 2% to 6% of Brazilian oil output.
E-commerce and logistics
Temu reached 39 million monthly users six months after launch; TikTok Shop arrived in May 2025 with GMV of up to R$39 bn expected by 2028; Cainiao runs 9 distribution centres in 7 states and signed an MoU with Correios.
F&B franchises and delivery
Mixue committed R$3.2 bn and up to 25,000 jobs by 2030, opening its first São Paulo store in April 2026; Meituan’s Keeta postponed its Rio launch and cut staff, a cautionary tale on execution; Didi’s 99 raised its 99Food investment to R$2 bn.
1 Bilateral trade: how large was it in 2025?
Brazil–China trade reached US$171 bn in 2025, up 8.2% and a record; China was Brazil’s largest trading partner for the 16th consecutive year. Brazil exported US$100 bn to China (+6%) and imported US$70.9 bn (+11.5%), a Brazilian surplus of US$29.1 bn. China takes 28.7% of Brazilian exports and supplies 25.3% of imports.
Exports are commodity-heavy: soybeans US$34.5 bn (34.5% of exports to China), crude oil US$20.1 bn, iron ore US$19.5 bn; China buys about 73% of Brazil’s exported soy, about 70% of its exported iron ore and 53.2% of its exported beef. Brazil is China’s largest supplier of soy, beef, pulp, cotton, sugar and chicken.
Seen from the other side, US$70.9 bn of imports from China means Brazil absorbs a large volume of Chinese machinery, electronics, vehicles and parts every year. That is the market base on which Chinese companies move from exporting to Brazil to operating in Brazil. Note: Chinese customs report US$185 bn; this site uses the figures of Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (MDIC).
2 Chinese direct investment: where did the money go?
According to the report published by CEBC (Brazil-China Business Council) on 7 May 2026, Chinese direct investment in Brazil reached US$6.1 bn in 2025, up 45% and the highest in seven years; Brazil became the number-one destination of Chinese outbound investment worldwide, with 10.9% of the total. 59 projects were announced, 7 of them (US$2.76 bn) did not materialise, leaving about 52 confirmed projects in 20 states.
Greenfield accounted for 60.9%; M&A tripled to US$1.9 bn (31.7%). By sector: electricity US$1.79 bn (29.5%), mining US$1.76 bn (highest since 2011, nickel and copper), automotive US$965 m (+66%). 31 “green” projects made up 60% of the total.
By region: Southeast 32.5%, North 26.7%, Centre-West 14%, South 14%, Northeast 12.8%; by state, São Paulo 17 projects, Minas Gerais 10, Pará 10, Amapá 9. Cumulative 2007–2025: US$85.5 bn in 355 projects.
For comparison, 2024 investment was US$4.18 bn (+113%) in a then-record 39 projects, with Brazil the third destination worldwide and first among emerging economies. The R$27 bn announced at the Beijing business forum in May 2025 included GWM R$6 bn, Meituan/Keeta R$5.6 bn, Envision up to R$5 bn, Mixue R$3.2 bn, CGN R$3 bn and Baiyin Nonferrous R$2.4 bn.
3 The automotive wave: why is 2026 the localisation watershed?
BYD’s Camaçari plant (Bahia) started production in October 2025 after R$5.5 bn of investment, with initial capacity of 150,000 vehicles a year rising to 300,000 by 2030; nine months after opening it had built 100,000 vehicles and employed 5,500 people directly, with stamping, welding and paint shops due in the second half of 2026. In April 2026 BYD became the number-one retail car brand in Brazil.
GWM’s Iracemápolis plant (São Paulo state) has produced since 15 August 2025, with R$10 bn committed to 2032, capacity of 50,000 a year, more than 60% local parts in 2026 and a second plant under study in Rio Grande (RS). CAOA Chery is adding R$5 bn to its Anápolis plant (Goiás), R$8 bn by 2028, to build Chery and Changan at about 200,000 a year.
Geely took 26.4% of Renault do Brasil in November 2025 with R$3.8 bn; the EX5 EM-i and EX2 will be built from the second half of 2026 at the Ayrton Senna complex in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná; Brazil’s first Geely dealership opened in the same city in August 2025, reaching 23 dealers in 18 cities by year end. Omoda & Jaecoo took over the former JLR plant in Itatiaia (RJ) with a 50,000-sales target for 2026; Leapmotor (Stellantis) starts production in Goiana (PE) in 2026; GAC has sold since 2025 and plans a plant by the end of 2026. Lepas, Dongfeng and BAIC arrive in 2026.
Policy is the watershed: from July 2026 the import tariff on BEVs, PHEVs and hybrids rises to 35%; brands with local assembly keep CKD quotas and a 14% rate until the end of 2026, and the full 35% applies from January 2027. Carmakers must localise and build supplier parks around their plants; Linglong has already reserved land for suppliers in Ponta Grossa.
4 Energy and minerals: after the state giants, where is the supplier opportunity?
State Grid won lot 1 of ANEEL transmission auction 2/2024 (R$18.1 bn, 1,500 km of UHVDC between Maranhão, Tocantins and Goiás) and has stated an intention to invest more than R$200 bn in Brazil. CTG Brasil added 1 GW in 2025 (Arinos solar in Minas Gerais, Serra da Palmeira wind in Paraíba). CGN commissioned 44 MW of solar at Lagoa do Barro (Piauí) in 2026, brought four plants online in Ceará in June 2026 and committed R$3 bn to renewables in Piauí.
On the equipment side, the 25% import tariff on solar modules above quota pushes local assembly and storage projects. CHINT makes meters in Manaus and is building its first South American plant in Itumbiara (Goiás); Trina Tracker is in Salvador; BYD announced up to R$500 m for stationary batteries. Electricity received US$1.79 bn of Chinese investment in 2025, 29.5% of the total.
Oil and minerals: CNOOC (70%) and Sinopec (30%) won the Ametista block in October 2025, and Chinese state companies rose from 2% of Brazilian oil output in 2021 to 6% in 2025. Mining investment of US$1.76 bn was the highest since 2011, concentrated in nickel and copper M&A; Baiyin Nonferrous announced R$2.4 bn for copper in Alagoas.
5 Machinery and agribusiness: how do trade fairs open the farm belt?
XCMG has produced in Pouso Alegre (Minas Gerais) since 2014, is investing R$270 m in electric trucks, is raising local content from 50% to 55% in 2026 and is entering tractors. Sany starts electric-truck production in Jacareí (São Paulo state) in 2026, and Banco Sany Brasil was licensed by the Central Bank in May 2025. Zoomlion has sold farm machinery since 2025 and is negotiating CKD assembly.
COFCO is expanding its STS11 terminal in Santos from 4.5 to 14 million tonnes a year and spent R$1.2 bn on 23 locomotives and 979 wagons for 2026. Brazil is China’s largest supplier of soy, beef, pulp, cotton, sugar and chicken; the farm belt is both a buyer and a market for machinery, irrigation and storage equipment.
Trade fairs are the most effective entry point: Show Rural Coopavel in Cascavel, Paraná (9–13 February 2026) gathers more than 600 exhibitors and about 400,000 visitors, with R$7.05 bn of business closed in 2025. Chinese companies typically test the market with imported machines, then localise through dealer networks and CKD assembly.
6 Consumer and digital: the platforms are here, how do brands sell?
Shein has about 300 partner factories in Brazil, 85% of its apparel made locally and 30,000 sellers, although local production is progressing slowly. Temu launched in May 2024 and reached 39 million monthly active users within six months; TikTok Shop arrived on 8 May 2025 with GMV of up to R$39 bn expected by 2028. AliExpress and Cainiao list Brazil among three priority markets for 2026, signed an MoU with Correios in May 2026 and run 9 distribution centres in 7 states.
Local service businesses diverge: Meituan’s Keeta committed US$1 bn (R$5.6 bn) over five years and piloted in Santos in October 2025, but postponed its Rio launch and made mass lay-offs in March 2026, a cautionary tale on execution; Didi’s 99 raised its 99Food investment to R$2 bn. Mixue committed R$3.2 bn and up to 25,000 jobs by 2030 and opened its first São Paulo store in April 2026. Xiaomi opened its 55th own store in 2026; Huawei ran a pop-up store in São Paulo in August 2025.
Online or offline, Brazilian consumers close on WhatsApp: about 147 million users, 82% have interacted with brands and 60% have bought through WhatsApp (Opinion Box, 2025). A Portuguese .com.br site and an official WhatsApp Business API channel are the minimum digital setup for a Chinese brand in Brazil.
7 Policy calendar: which changes between 2026 and 2033 affect your timeline?
Tax reform (Constitutional Amendment 132/2023): 2026 is a test year, with CBS 0.9% and IBS 0.1% shown on invoices while the old taxes remain; in 2027 CBS applies in full and PIS/COFINS are abolished; from 2029 to 2032 ICMS and ISS migrate to IBS; in 2033 the new regime runs fully. Any subsidiary set up in 2026 needs its ERP and e-invoicing (NF-e) designed for old and new taxes in parallel.
Industrial policy: the EV import tariff reaches 35% from July 2026 and applies in full from January 2027; solar modules pay 25% above quota. The Mover programme offers R$19.3 bn in tax credits to 2028 and Move Brasil up to R$30 bn in credit for fleet renewal.
Bilateral relations: President Xi Jinping’s state visit on 20 November 2024 produced 37 signed acts and elevated the partnership to a “Community of Shared Future”; the BRICS summit in Rio on 6–7 July 2025 adopted the Economic Partnership Strategy 2030 and AI-governance guidelines. Holders of ordinary Chinese passports may enter Brazil visa-free for 30 days (tourism, business, conferences) from 11 May to 31 December 2026, which suits scouting trips; there is no direct flight, and Air China flies Beijing–Madrid–São Paulo three times a week.
Data compliance: ANPD Resolution 19/2024 regulates international data transfers; China has no adequacy decision, so transferring personal data to a Chinese headquarters requires standard contractual clauses.
8 Pain points: where do Chinese companies most often lose ground in Brazil?
Complexity: Brazil ranks 3rd in TMF Group’s Global Business Complexity Index 2026; a Caixin commentary put it as “opening is the easy part, surviving the bureaucracy is the test”. The “Custo Brasil” is estimated at R$1.7 trillion a year, about 19.5% of GDP.
Time: commercial registries process filings in about 21 hours on average, but a company typically needs 30–45 days to be operational. A foreign shareholder needs a CPF/CNPJ, a resident attorney-in-fact and Central Bank registration of the investment (SCE-IED) within 30 days. Product certification takes 60–120 days at INMETRO and 90–180 days at ANATEL, fixed items to schedule before any shipment.
Labour and culture: 163 Chinese workers were rescued from BYD’s Camaçari site in December 2024, and BYD and its contractors settled for R$40 m in December 2025. Keeta’s postponed Rio launch and lay-offs show that funding is not execution. S&P analysts point to “effective localisation” as the success factor for Chinese companies in Brazil.